The Mathematics of Soccer Spread Betting
A. Fitt (School of Mathematics, University of Southampton)
It will be shown how Soccer spread betting may be approached from a point of view that is closely related to classical Markowitz Portfolio theory. When "expected win" bets have been identified, an "optimal" portfolio may be calculated that allows the punter to optimize their chances of success. Bet valuation methods will also be considered with a view to exploitation of small inefficiencies in football betting markets. If time permits, it will also be shown how some arbitrages may be set up between fixed odds and spread bets and how the success or otherwise of these betting strategies may be examined by solving a sequence of finite (and infinite) linear (and nonlinear) programming problems.