Validated Solution of Nonlinear Dynamic Models in Epidemiology
M.A. Stadtherr (University of Notre Dame, USA) and J.A. Enszer (University of Notre Dame, USA)
Epidemiological models can be used to study the impact of an infection within a population. These models often involve parameters which are not known with certainty. Using validated methods for solving such models we can bound the disease trajectories that are possible for given bounds on the uncertain parameters. This is demonstrated using the SIRS model and its variants, including the case of time-dependent transmission (Dushoff et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 101, pp. 16915-16916, 2004).