Models for the control of human food poisoning bacteria: on-farm and food chain interventions
N. French (Massey University, New Zealand)
Foodborne diseases represent a large and growing public health problem worldwide. Reducing contamination of the food supply is therefore a major global concern to industry, food safety regulators and both veterinary and medical public health professionals. Mathematical models have played a crucial role in understanding the epidemiology and control of foodborne pathogens, estimating the public health burden from different food sources, and informing national and international public health policy. Deterministic and stochastic models of transmission dynamics of foodborne pathogens in farmed livestock, have identified the importance of key management groups (Turner et al., 2003; Turner et al., 2006; Xiao et al., 2005; Xiao et al., 2006) and high shedding individuals (Matthews et al., 2006) in maintaining persistent infections on-farm. These models naturally lead to the design of intervention strategies aimed at blocking or reducing transmission below the critical threshold needed for infection to persist. Similar models, incorporating processes such as cross-contamination and pathogen growth and inactivation, have also been developed to identify critical control points further along the food-processing chain. These tools will be illustrated using models developed for the control of the internationally important bacterial pathogens: E. coli O157 and Salmonella in cattle and pigs.
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Turner, J., Begon, M., Bowers, R.G., French, N.P., 2003, A model appropriate to the transmission of a human food-borne pathogen in a multigroup managed herd. Prev Vet Med 57, 175-198.
Turner, J., Bowers, R.G., Begon, M., Robinson, S.E., French, N.P., 2006, A semi-stochastic model of the transmission of Escherichia coli O157 in a typical UK dairy herd: Dynamics, sensitivity analysis and intervention/prevention strategies. J Theor Biol.
Xiao, Y., Bowers, R.G., Clancy, D., French, N.P., 2005, Understanding the dynamics of Salmonella infections in dairy herds: a modelling approach. J Theor Biol 233, 159-175.
Xiao, Y., Clancy, D., French, N.P., Bowers, R.G., 2006, A semi-stochastic model for Salmonella infection in a multi-group herd. Math Biosci 200, 214-233.